It's Not Easy Being Ahead

Have you ever been dealt KK in No Limit Hold'em and thought to yourself "How much am I going to lose on this hand?"

If you're like me, you think it every time. In this post, I fully intend to provide some insight on how to handle the inevitable in poker, the "bad beat"

Now, while everyone has their own definition of "bad beat" I think it is generally agreed upon when you have the best hand when all the money is in OR you're giving an opponent incorrect odds to make a hand when they do it anyway.

Here's a true story of what just happened at a side table. I'm playing .5/.10 during FTP's "Happy Hour" when I get 10-J of spades from the BB. Two other players besides myself, and I check my option. I flop a flush. The SB comes out for .10 into a .30 pot. I reraise to .50 and the other player in the hand calls. The SB folds. Now the turn brings the most irrelevant card, a red Jack. I raise it up to $1.35, which is a little more than what's shown in the pot ($1.35 total if you include rake). I get called AGAIN. At this point, I totally put him on the A of spades and probably not even a pair otherwise. The turn comes...4 of spades. Since it's a cap game i'm left to bet just about $1, which I push in immediately. He calls and shows the Ace of spades and a 4 of diamonds, for the nut flush. I reflect back on my play. Could I have done ANYTHING differently? Maybe I should've just capped it off after the flop, to which there's a damn good chance the A-rag also follows along. It's fairly obvious to me that .5/.10 is just a joke, as well as the $2.25 sit n gos which I just enjoy from time to time. So yeah, as far as an update in my personal poker life, i'm going to move up stakes and play better players; my bankroll is suffering at lower stakes currently (which doesn't make much sense in theory)

Anyway, i'd say that 9 out of 10 showdowns, I'll have the best hand; it's very rare that I run into a better hand, and if I do, the other guy played it correctly. You flop a set and I have two pair, congrats for having a better hand to begin with, and it held up and than some. I can walk away upset at myself for making a bad play while that guy is paid off for making a great play and also catching me on a hand. You also tend to forget these types of beats very easily. I once jokingly told one of my pals that he should've folded QQ preflop to predict a bad beat. He did lose the hand to a pair of aces his opponent caught. If you could predict bad beats, you'd be an unstoppable force. You could get away from KK if you knew you'd lose to A2. The conclusion I've came to for me personally is this: The more bad beats you get, the better player you are. On the contrary, if you're behind most of the time, you draw out more, and you're a worse player. More to the point, you're not a successful player. In a game where luck IS involved and is a huge factor, you're just likely to lose. As a poker player, the absolute MOST you can do at any given table is put yourself into a position where you're likely to win and you've been a favorite since the dealer dealt the hand. From there, it's the part that is confusing: Avoiding getting unlucky. I say confusing because (especially in a tournament) for how long do you have to avoid bad luck? If you are in a showdown in a tournament 6 times and have the best hand all 6, maybe you lose once or twice still. You're a favorite, sure, but that only gets you so far. After a bad beat where you feel you've completely played the hand well, got your money in with the best and still lost, you must look at your loss as more of a gain. I feel that the more often you put yourself into winning positions, the more often, (and the more money) you'll win. I also usually don't like to buy into people who say that the "other guy had a reason to be in the pot." Sometimes that is very true, but if you have AK and they call with AQ, you should win around 70% of the time, and when you don't you get frustrated. The worst thing you can do is question your play. When that guy beat me with an A of spades, I was so sure he had that, and I made it as impossible for him to call, considering pot odds. At the same time, I flopped a J high flush and wanted some incentive, why not make money if a guy is going to call on his 7 outer all the way to the river? When reflecting back on that hand now, I think an all in after the flop would've still led to a call; he just wasn't mucking that A high flush draw. In retrospect, I should've folded my flopped flush. When going to the river, my opponent was 14% to hit his river spade for a winning flush. Does this REALLY mean that the next 8 or 9 times out of 10 when I flop a flush, the other guy won't make his higher flush with one spade?? Statistically speaking, that's exactly what SHOULD happen. From a personal perspective, I don't feel like I've been given my due in the poker world; I truly feel like i'm destined for very big wins and cashes in the near future, and it's simply because I have the best hand every time, and if you don't believe me I'd be more than happy to have some observers come watch. What I must remember from now on is this:

1. The more you draw out, the worse of a player you are. If you find yourself behind in a decent amount of hands, you're a bad player.
2. The more you get sucked out on, the better of a player you are.

These two perspectives are 100% factual and make perfect sense. It's like stating that you see more bad beats online because you see more hands. Players who put themselves in positions to draw out will do it more often than a solid player who likes to stay ahead.

One thing that I must stress before capping this post off is this: When you're losing, you should not play higher to try and make up for lost ground. You are instead putting more money at risk to potentially lose. The chances that you're not going to be playing with a clear mind are also good. I would recommend taking a break. Anywhere from just a night to maybe a couple weeks, whatever is necessary. I hate when people say "play lower limits" when you're losing. Personally, I play lower and lose the majority of the time running into idiots. But, isn't that the price you pay for being really good? Like, really, really good?


Here's the FTP Hand History on me losing with the J high flush


Full Tilt Poker Game #6950701598: Table Legalla (6 max) - $0.05/$0.10 - $3 Cap No Limit Hold'em - FLOP *** [2s 8s 6s]timoria has 15 seconds left to acttimoria bets $0.10HellfyreMS foldsAron Norem raises to $0.50WimBe calls $0.50timoria folds*** TURN *** [2s 8s 6s] [Jd]Aron Norem bets $1.35WimBe calls $1.35*** RIVER *** [2s 8s 6s Jd] [4s]Aron Norem bets $1.05, and is cappedWimBe calls $1.05, and is capped*** SHOW DOWN ***Aron Norem shows [Js Ts] a flush, Jack highWimBe shows [As 5c] a flush, Ace highWimBe wins the pot ($5.70) with a flush, Ace high*** SUMMARY ***Total pot $6.30 Rake $0.60Board: [2s 8s 6s Jd 4s]Seat 1: Aron Norem showed [Js Ts] and lost with a flush, Jack highSeat 2: I_am_Gooood1 didn't bet (folded)Seat 3: lulusgirl didn't bet (folded)Seat 4: WimBe (button) showed [As 5c] and won ($5.70) with a flush, Ace highSeat 5: timoria (small blind) folded on the FlopSeat 6: HellfyreMS (big blind) folded on the Flop